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Hanlong insider trading suspect seeks asylum in Hong Kong

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A former executive of China's Hanlong Mining, who is wanted in Australia for insider trading, is seeking asylum in Hong Kong, Reuters reports.

According to the report, Robert Tibbo, the lawyer representing Hui Xiao -- who is also known as Steven Xiao -- said it could take five years or more for his case to be resolved.

Even if Xiao is extradited to Australia, he cannot be removed from Hong Kong until the result of the asylum application is clear, Tibbo added.

A statement released by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission in January states that Xiao is wanted in Australia in relation to 104 offences relating to insider trading ahead of Hanlong's takeover bids for Australia's Sundance Resources and Bannerman Resources in 2011.

Hanlong's former chief investment officer, Calvin Zhu, was sentenced to two years and three months jail on related charges.

Xiao was cleared to leave for Hong Kong for a short visit in 2011 but failed to return. He is one of several Hanlong executives whom ASIC has investigated over insider trading.

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Asylum case could delay extradition by five years.

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Japan PM Abe won't change apology

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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe says his government will not revise a landmark 1993 "comfort women" apology, and says he has been "deeply pained" by the suffering of women drawn into a system of wartime brothels.

Abe has faced criticism for his government's plan to review what is known as the Kono statement, which acknowledged official complicity in the coercion of military sex slaves, a historical legacy that draws raw resentment in neighbouring South Korea.

Respected historians say up to 200,000 women, mostly from Korea but also from China, Indonesia, the Philippines and Taiwan, were forced to serve Japanese soldiers. They are sometimes called "comfort women".

On Friday, Abe said that his cabinet "upholds the position on the recognition of history outlined by the previous administrations in its entirety" including the Kono statement.

"With regard to the comfort women issue, I am deeply pained to think of the comfort women who experienced immeasurable pain and suffering, a feeling I share equally with my predecessors," he told a parliamentary committee, according to a statement issued by the ministry of foreign affairs.

"The Kono Statement addresses this issue... As my Chief Cabinet Secretary (Yoshihide) Suga stated in press conferences, the Abe cabinet has no intention to review it."

Suga, the government's top spokesman, said on Monday that there was no plan to revise the statement, adding that Tokyo's review was aimed at verifying historical facts, and determine if South Korea was involved in drafting its text.

Neither Suga's comments, nor the latest remarks from Abe, clarified what would happen if Tokyo's review was at odds with the official apology.

In 1993, after hearing testimony from 16 Korean women, Japan offered "sincere apologies and remorse" to the women and vowed to face the historical facts squarely.

But repeated wavering on the issue among senior right-wing politicians has contributed to a feeling in South Korea that Japan is in denial and is not sufficiently remorseful.

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Shinzo Abe says there are no plans to revisit a 1993 government apology to World War II "comfort women".

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Alibaba set to opt for US listing

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Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba is “95 per cent certain” to choose New York over Hong Kong for its initial public offering, according to the Financial Times citing a number of sources close to the deal.

The publication reports the company is no longer discussing a potential listing in Hong Kong.

Alibaba had initially planned to list in Hong Kong, but regulators there had refused to change their one-share one-vote principle.

The company had planned an IPO with a shareholder structure that allows control over the board by a group of top managers despite holding only 13 per cent of the company’s shares.

Alibaba chief cxecutive vice chairman Joe Tsai told Reuters on Wednesday that the company would “never” change its partnership structure in order to list in Hong Kong.

This follows an annoucment on Tuesday by the company that it would buy 60 per cent of Hong Kong listed ChinaVision Media Group for US $804 million.

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Chinese e-commerce giant is no longer discussing a potential listing in Hong Kong according to sources.

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China keen for FTA with Aust

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Every Australian household is more than $13,000 better off thanks to trade with China, the country's ambassador to Australia says.

"Each year trade with China benefits Australian households in income equivalent terms by more than $13,400," Ma Zaoxu told a business lunch in Perth on Friday.

"So each household benefits from the trade with China."

China's investment last year in Australia stood at around $A19 billion, he said.

As China undertakes a broad range of economic reforms, its leadership is eager to speed up negotiations for a free trade agreement with Australia, he said.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott hopes to make significant progress on those negotiations when he visits North Asia in early April.

Negotiations have stretched over several years, but during a recent address Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has vowed to accelerate the deal.

The federal government says a free trade agreement with China will bring billions of dollars Australia's way, but is also likely to mean making domestic concessions.

Mr Ma reiterated his premier's commitment on Friday, saying the deal would be beneficial for both parties, as Australia is China's biggest two-way trading partner.

"Both sides are very serious in negotiations over an FTA," he said.

"We are determined to speed up negotiations."

He said the FTA would be very comprehensive and include many sectors, including services and resources.

Over the next five years China plans to spend $A555 billion in outbound foreign investment, Mr Ma said.

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China's ambassador says the world's second largest economy is keen to finalise a trade deal with Australia.

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China's Weibo files for IPO in US

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Weibo, the Chinese microblogging service often compared with Twitter, has filed for a US stock offering seeking to raise $US500 million ($A555.71 million).

The move will allow the popular Chinese-language social network to spin off from the internet giant Sina, according to documents filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The filing said Weibo had 129.1 million monthly active users in December and 61.4 million average daily active users.

"A microcosm of Chinese society, Weibo has attracted a wide range of users, including ordinary people, celebrities and other public figures, as well as organisations such as media outlets, businesses, government agencies and charities," the SEC filing said.

"Weibo has become a cultural phenomenon in China.

"Weibo allows people to be heard publicly and exposed to the rich ideas, cultures and experiences of the broader world," it added.

"Media outlets use Weibo as a source of news and a distribution channel for their headline news. Government agencies and officials use Weibo as an official communication channel for disseminating timely information and gauging public opinion to improve public services."

The filing said Weibo's initial public offering (IPO) will be part of a "carve-out from Sina" but that Sina would "continue to provide us with certain support services" after it becomes independent.

Weibo reported revenues for 2013 of $US188 million, triple the level of 2012, but has continually lost money, like its US counterpart, with accumulated losses of $US274.9 million as of December 31.

But Weibo said it would work to increase the number of users and monetisation as it strives for profitability.

The company did not indicate whether Weibo would file its IPO on the Nasdaq or New York Stock Exchange.

The lead underwriters will be Goldman Sachs Asia and Credit Suisse.

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Filing to allow social network to spin off from the internet giant Sina.

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China eases exchange rate controls

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China has announced it will ease exchange rate controls that have been criticised by Washington and other trading partners as part of reforms aimed at making its economy more efficient.

The band in which the tightly controlled yuan is allowed to fluctuate each day against the US dollar will double in size but stay relatively narrow, allowing a 2 per cent change up or down.

The move, widely expected, adds to a steady drumbeat of policy changes announced as part of plans by the ruling Communist Party to give market forces a bigger role in the state-dominated economy.

Widening the trading band will help to "optimise the efficiency of capital allocation and market allocation of resources to accelerate economic development," said a central bank statement.

Washington and other governments complain Beijing suppresses the value of the yuan, unfairly making Chinese exports cheaper abroad and hurting foreign competitors.

Some US lawmakers have demanded punitive tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing failed to ease controls, but successive American administrations have resisted imposing sanctions.

Allowing the yuan to rise in value would increase the buying power of Chinese households, helping to achieve the ruling party's goal of nurturing more sustainable economic growth based on domestic consumption instead of trade and investment.

Reform advocates say that by suppressing the yuan's value, Beijing has been forcing even poor households to subsidise exporters.

In recent weeks, the central bank has been guiding the yuan's exchange lower against the dollar in what analysts said was an effort to discourage speculators who are moving money into China to profit from the currency's rise.

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Move will allow the currency to fluctuate more widely against the US dollar.

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China doubles yuan trading band

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China's central bank has doubled the yuan's trading band to two per cent, loosening its grip on the currency and underscoring efforts to accelerate exchange-rate reforms.

The move will take effect on March 17, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said in a statement on Saturday, and it follows years of international pressure on Beijing to allow faster yuan appreciation.

The change, which follows Beijing's landmark move in April 2012 to double the trading band to 1.0 per cent, is seen by some analysts as a key step towards establishing a market-based exchange-rate system.

China's ruling Communist Party has so far maintained a firm grip on the yuan, also known as the renminbi (RMB), as one of its key tools to control the economy, and due to worries about unpredictable financial inflows or outflows.

Saturday's announcement comes after the central bank engineered a depreciation of the yuan in recent weeks - apparently in an effort to drive out speculators ahead of the band-widening - and follows last month's statement it was seeking an "orderly expansion" of the trading band as a policy goal.

"In order to meet the demands of market development, increase the strength of the market-determined exchange rate and establish a market-based, managed floating exchange rate regime, the People's Bank of China has decided to widen the floating range of the renminbi against the US dollar," the bank said.

It added that the bank "will further develop the role of the market in the RMB exchange rate formulation mechanism".

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After years of global pressure, central bank eyes appreciation of the yuan.

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Alibaba, Weibo prep for IPOs in US

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Two of China's biggest Internet companies are moving to cash in on the red-hot US market for new issues.

E-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding is preparing for a US initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter, which would be one of the biggest ever in the US. The deal under consideration would raise more than $US15 billion ($A16.6bn), these people said, rivaling or surpassing Facebook 2012 deal, which raised $US16bn.

Separately, China's version of Twitter, Weibo Corporation, unveiled plans Friday to sell $US500m worth of stock in the US The messaging service had 129 million users as of December, compared with Twitter's 241m average for the three months ended in December.

The two companies are largely unknown in the US, but their scale and financial performance show how a new breed of Asian player is entering the global Internet arena.

These companies have deftly mimicked--and often improved upon--Web innovations first developed in the West. A next step in their evolution could be to bring their services into new markets, posing unexpected challenges to entrenched US companies.

For now, the sheer size of the Chinese market has created an opportunity that should make for a splashy sale for US stock investors. They have lately poured into dozens of new IPOs, eager to find growth in a stock market where sales growth has been meek.

Alibaba, based in Hangzhou, China, long ago surpassed Amazon.com Inc. as the largest e-commerce company in the world measured by the amount of business conducted on its websites. Its business model combines features of Amazon, eBay and Google.

Its largest website, Taobao marketplace, is home to more than six million Chinese merchants selling their wares. It is free to sell on Taobao, which was launched in 2003; Alibaba cashes in by selling advertising to merchants that want to stand out.

In 2008, it started a second consumer website called Tmall, featuring higher-end products from brands like Apple, L'Oréal and Adidas. Analysts say that site has been growing more quickly as Chinese consumers have developed a taste for higher-end merchandise. On Tmall, Alibaba charges stores a commission on their product sales.

Total gross merchandise traded on Alibaba in 2013 was $US240bn, according to a person with knowledge of the figures. For Amazon, the figure was roughly $US100bn, according to Forrester Research.

Lately Alibaba has ramped up efforts to bring US brands back home. It is close to launching a new US online marketplace called 11Main.com for small- and medium-size brands and manufacturers. It is also meeting with US brands to get them to accept Alipay, Alibaba's PayPal-like payments service.

Alibaba is laying the groundwork for an offering in the US as soon as the third quarter of this year, say people familiar with the matter.

Analysts estimate that Alibaba's stock-market valuation could exceed $US100bn. That would rank it in the top 40 in the S&P 500 by market value, according to FactSet.

Alibaba could still decide to list in Hong Kong, or to delay a listing for market or business reasons. A spokeswoman for the company said that no decisions on a potential IPO, including its timing, venue or advisers, had yet been made.

Whetting investors' appetite for the shares are Alibaba's outsize profits. The company generated $US3.1bn in operating profit, implying a 46 per cent operating profit margin, in the 12 months through September, according to disclosures by Yahoo, which owns a 24 per cent stake in Alibaba. Amazon had operating profit of $US640m over the period.

Weibo's revenue, meanwhile, nearly tripled last year to $US188m, according to its securities filing. Like Twitter, the company is still losing money, posting a 2013 loss of $US38m.

The service, which like Twitter limits messages to 140 characters, though in this case 140 Chinese characters, only began making money off its platform in 2012 primarily through the sale of advertising and marketing services.

The company is majority-owned by another Chinese company, Sina Corporation Weibo's listing could come as soon as next month under US securities rules.

Weibo--which means "microblog" in Chinese--was founded in 2009 and, much to the frustration of the Chinese government, has served as a virtual town square for the Chinese to discuss everything from pop stars to corrupt politicians.

As such, the Chinese government has cracked down on some of Weibo's most influential users. In its IPO filing, Weibo lists Chinese censors as one of its biggest risk factors.

Sina owns about 78 per cent of Weibo. One of Weibo's other major shareholders happens to be Alibaba, which last year invested $US585.8m for an 19 per cent stake in Weibo to broaden its mobile offerings.

The world's biggest banks have been jockeying for a leading role in the Alibaba deal, which--based on past similar deals--could generate fees of more than $US150m. Being associated with the deal could also deliver valuable brand boosts for banks, not to mention future business.

Two banks, Credit Suisse Group AG and Morgan Stanley, are widely seen as the most likely to be the senior banks in the deal, though others--including Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase & Co and Citigroup--are said to also be in the running for significant roles in any deal, according to people familiar with the matter.

Alibaba is already fully accustomed to US public-company standards and procedures, as its financial results have for several years been reported as part of Yahoo's disclosures. It follows the US's generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP.

Also, Alibaba would likely avoid controversies that could affect other Chinese companies. Alibaba is technically not a Chinese entity, but is incorporated in the Cayman Islands. It uses Hong Kong-based auditing firms, not firms based in mainland China.

Where, when and with what bankers the company would go public has emerged as an international parlor game, especially since discussions became public between Alibaba and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange last year. The company met resistance from Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing over listing rules related to Alibaba's corporate board structure.

Some investor advocates have expressed concern about Alibaba's unusual corporate structure. Alibaba has a group of partners who don't hold a different class of shares, but do have the ability to nominate a majority of the corporate board.

Alibaba founder Jack Ma stepped down as chief executive a year ago but remains chairman. With no background in business or technology, the former English teacher founded Alibaba in his apartment in 1999. It now has more than 20,000 employees.

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Combined, the two Chinese online giants could raise more than Facebook.

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Govt mulls allowing more Chinese workers: report

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The federal government is considering changing the skilled migration program to allow more Chinese workers into Australia in a major concession aimed at clinching a free-trade deal with China, reports The Saturday Paper.

According to the newspaper, despite recent assurances by trade minister Andrew Robb that the free movement of labour was not up for negotiation, the government is considering changes to the skilled migration program that will help improve access for Chinese workers.

Those changes would be part of a review of the 457 visa scheme that is due to report mid-year.

The report also claims that the government is open to allowing more investment from China without Foreign investment Board approval. Under the changes, private Chinese companies will be able to invest up to $1 billion without requiring approval from the FIRB.

In September last year, the Nationals' John Williams told Fairfax Media that a $1bn Chinese investment threshold would be "outrageous", particularly when the coalition has a policy of reducing the FIRB ceiling from $248 million to $15m for agricultural land buyouts.

Negotiations have stretched over several years as Australia and China try to reach common ground on an FTA, but during a recent address Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has vowed to accelerate the deal.

In welcoming those remarks, Trade Minister Andrew Robb also conceded that an FTA with China is likely to mean making domestic concessions.

The proposed changes follow a relaxation of visa policy towards Chinese business people in early April that allows Chinese business visitors to apply for three-year multiple entry visas. Previously Chinese business visitors were limited to 12-month visas.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott will visit Japan, Korea and China in April as the government looks to shore up free trade agreements with the Asian nations.

Mr Abbott has previously pledged to secure three FTAs in his first 12 months as prime minister.

In mid-February Trade Minister Robb released details of 1800-page free trade deal with South Korea. After full implementation, the agreement will eliminate tariffs on 99.8 per cent of Australia's exports.

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The government is considering allowing skilled Chinese workers into Australia and more Chinese investment without FIRB approval in order to clinch an FTA.

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China strengthens role as arms supplier

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China has gained further ground as a global arms supplier and India kept its spot as the world's leading arms importer, a Swedish-based research institute says.

India's 2009-2013 imports stood at 14 per cent of the world's total, almost three times larger than those of rivals China and Pakistan, the world's second-and third-largest importers on five per cent each, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said on Monday.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were also among the top five importers, reflecting heavy investments to deter rival Iran, SIPRI researcher Siemon Wezeman said.

The volume of world arms transfers increased in the period by 14 per cent compared with 2004-2008.

In its overview, SIPRI said there were 55 arms exporting countries.

The United States and Russia were the main exporters, supplying more than half the world's arms between 2009 and 2013.

The US, with 29 per cent of global exports, sold to "more countries than anybody else during the past five years", Wezeman said.

SIPRI estimated the US sold arms to at least 90 countries. Australia, South Korea and the UAE are its main markets.

With more cuts in the US defence budget, US arms makers were likely to become more dependent on exports, Wezeman said. The US government has also been keen on promoting arms exports for commercial and strategic reasons.

The mainstay of US exports were combat aircraft, followed by missile defence systems.

Russia delivered arms to 52 countries, and was a main supplier of ships and aircraft. India, China and Algeria accounted for more than half of Russia's exports.

Meanwhile, China replaced France as the fourth-largest exporter with a six per cent share.

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China replaces France as the fourth-largest exporter of arms with a six per cent share.

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China to raise urban residents to 60%

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Beijing intends to raise the number of urban residents to 60 per cent by 2020.

China will build more railways to help to raise the proportion of urban residents to 60 per cent of the total population by 2020.

That is according to a 2014-2020 urbanisation plan unveiled on Sunday by the State Council, China's cabinet, reported by the official Xinhua News Agency.

Beijing sees urbanisation as China's next biggest engine for economic growth.

At present, permanent urban residents make up 53.7 per cent of the population of almost 1.4 billion. This is lower than the average of 80 per cent for developed countries and 60 per cent for developing countries with similar per capita income levels as China.

Xinhua says the plan states that regular railways will cover cities with more than 200,000 residents by 2020 and high-speed railways with connect those with more than half a million residents.

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Beijing intends to raise the number of urban residents to 60 per cent by 2020.

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Govt reviewing foreign property investment

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Federal Parliament's House Economics Committee is examining the laws governing foreign investment following community concern over a rise in Chinese property investment.

According to a report in The Sunday Telegraph, Coalition MPs have raised concerns that young families are being priced out of the home buying market.

The parliamentary inquiry will be chaired by Victorian MP Kelly O'Dwyer with public hearings held in "real-estate hot spots", the report added.

Speaking to ABC Radio this morning, Ms O'Dwyer said the committee would look into the current foreign investment framework to assess how it accords with real estate and whether it's driving up prices.

"The great Australian dream is to own your own home and we know that's pretty difficult even with two incomes and lots of years of savings and a large mortgage so we want to make sure we’re not making it even more difficult" Ms O'Dwyer added.

Opposition leader Bill Shorten told a press briefing this morning that Labor will be "supportive and cooperative" with the inquiry but added that foreign investment is not the only issue.

"We’ve got to make sure that ordinary Australians can get their deposit together, we’ve got to make sure that the land is released, that they have adequate infrastructure," he said.

A report released earlier this month by Credit Suisse estimated that Chinese buyers are expected to purchase $44 billion worth of Australian residential property over the next seven years.

Up to 12 per cent of all new housing purchases are by wealthy Chinese investors.

The investment bank estimates that 12 per cent of all new housing purchases and up to 18 per cent in Sydney and 14 per cent in Melbourne are by Chinese buyers.

According to the report, Chinese buyers comprise an estimated $5bn worth of property purchases in Australia per annum.

The findings follow Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) data that shows Chinese investors were the largest source of foreign investment in Australian property in 2012-13 (China ramps up Australian property purchases 1 March 2014).

The number of Chinese who are able to afford an apartment in Sydney is expected to rise by 30 per cent by 2020.

Chinese buyers bought $24bn of housing over the last seven years.

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Inquiry announced after Coalition MPs raise concerns that young families are being priced out of the home buying market.

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ANZ's Smith backs FTA with China

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Australia and New Zealand Banking Group chief executive officer Mike Smith has called for the quick establishment of a free trade agreement with China, saying it would benefit domestic business.

"From a business perspective, getting the free trade agreement up and running would be a huge asset," Mr Smith told an Australia China Business Council meeting.

"If we get the bare bones in place we can then move on those."

Mr Smith said there are "massive opportunities" for Australia as the number of financial centres in Asia increases.

Understanding the different relationship between business and government can be hard for Australian business people going into Asia, he said.

Mr Smith also noted a difference in investment timelines between Australia and Asia.

"Investment timelines in Asia are generally much longer than we would expect here."

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ANZ CEO says establishing agreement would be an asset for Aust business.

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Govt called on to encourage Chinese money

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The Australia China Business Council met with a number of ministers in Canberra on Monday, including Prime Minister Tony Abbott, who will lead a trade delegation to China in mid-April.

The council's national president Duncan Calder said Australia must do all it can to deliver a level playing field for Chinese investment.

His call follows recent University of Sydney/KPMG research which found in 2013 Australia was overtaken by the United States as the preferred destination for China's direct investment.

"Anything we can do to encourage Chinese investment ... can only be positive for the Australian economy," Mr Calder told reporters.

Mr Calder said he was encouraged by what he heard at the meetings, which centred around cutting regulations and making it simpler and easier for business to succeed.

"What we want is just to make sure that the environment in which trade occurs is one where there is no `big government," Mr Calder said.

Over 135 council members from around Australia attended the networking day at Parliament House.

It included sessions with Mr Abbott, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, Treasurer Joe Hockey, Trade Minister Andrew Robb, Industry Minister Ian Macfarlane and Small Business Minister Bruce Billson.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and Palmer United Party Leader Clive Palmer also took part.

Freight operator Aurizon's managing director Lance Hockridge said all ministers spoke of the importance of the relationship with China and how that translates into real and tangible benefits for Australians.

"The prime minister and the other ministers going to China in two or three weeks is a tremendous representation of the commitment and change that we are seeking," Mr Hockridge told reporters.

He said the relationship with China offers opportunities that simply cannot be taken for granted.

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Business groups call on government to encourage Chinese investment in Australia.

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Wider yuan band is no quick fix for the Aussie

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Graph for Wider yuan band is no quick fix for the Aussie

Over the weekend the People's Bank of China announced a widening of the allowable daily trading range for the Yuan from 1 per cent to 2 per cent.

This is the third time it has widened the USD/CNY band, with the last move back in April 2012 where it also doubled the band, from 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent. There are some stark similarities with the last move in 2012, when economic growth had also been weakening and the central bank had started to move the USD/CNY higher prior to the announcement.

The move has been flagged by many, including Chinese officials of course, as an important step towards currency liberalisation. Don’t get me wrong, it is great to see some steps in what is the right direction but the real problem has not been fixed.

The daily central bank reference rate, often referred to as the daily fixing rate or the fix, is still set by the central bank each day. So it can still control the level of the exchange rate, but now it will let it move twice as much away from this rate throughout the day. So if it reaches one end of the band today they set the fixing rate tomorrow at another rate. Given this didn’t happen when the band was 1 per cent, I am not sure what a 2 per cent band will achieve other than allowing for more intraday volatility.

Now let us assume that this is a genuine step towards a free-floating exchange rate and this scenario eventually plays out as many say in the next 3-5 years. What does this mean for the Aussie dollar?

Well for a start many of those global fund managers that currently take positions in the Australian dollar as a proxy to China would go direct, selling out of AUD positions and buying CNY. This would see our currency trade lower and also eventually reduce liquidity in what is currently the fifth most actively traded currency in the world.

On the flipside, a free floating CNY has long been considered to see a higher exchange rate but that was more the case several years ago when demand for Chinese exports was increasing. With the global economy growing at a slow rate nowadays it could actually be the Chinese selling their currency to invest offshore at a faster rate that pushes the Yuan lower -- not export demand taking it higher. This has already been playing out in recent years with Chinese investment into Australian property increasing dramatically, adding support to the Aussie dollar.


Graph for Wider yuan band is no quick fix for the Aussie

According to a recent report by Credit Suisse, Chinese buyers make up an estimated $5 billion in Australian property purchases annually with more than 18 per cent of new housing stock in Sydney alone being purchased from China.

So while there is much fanfare at the moment around Chinese currency reform I suspect the euphoria will die down soon and it will be business as usual -- that is of course until the PBoC fixes the real issue and removes the peg of the daily reference rate.

Given the effect this could have on Australian property prices perhaps we should be careful what we wish for though.

Jim Vrondas is chief currency strategist, Asia-Pacific at OzForex, a global provider of online international payment services and a key provider of Forex news. OzForex Group Limited, is a publicly listed entity with shares traded on the Australian Securities Exchange under the code "OFX".

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A new two per cent trading band for China's currency is a step towards currency liberalisation, but it still doesn't address the real issue -- the peg of the daily reference rate.

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UDP boss targets Chinese market

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The Hong Kong entrepreneur who now controls Australia's largest privately owned milk processing company, United Dairy Power (UDP), wants to use it as a springboard to break into the multi-billion-dollar powdered milk market in China.

William Hui, who last month paid about $70 million to take control of UDP from its founder Tony Esposito, said he was willing to spend a further $20m to bolster capacity at the group's factories or seek alliances to help UDP expand into the milk powder business.

In his first ever media interview, Mr Hui -- who is also the chairman of Singapore-listed Swing Media Technology, a company that makes and trades CDs, DVDs and other media products -- said he was also talking to his bankers about potentially providing finance to UDP's suppliers to help them bolster milk supplies.

He said the company could consider purchasing farming properties in the future as part of its expansion plan for UDP, designed to cash in on the booming demand for powdered milk products in China.

The infant milk formula market in China is set to double to more than $25 billion by 2017. But while the global price for whole milk powder jumped 65 per cent over the past year, Australia's production of milk powder fell 22 per cent over the same period.

Mr Hui stressed that the company remained committed to maintaining capacity in the local market and would only forge ahead with its expansion plans if it could source bigger milk supplies. UDP, based in South Melbourne, has processing facilities at Poowong in Victoria and Murray Bridge and Jervois in South Australia.

Mr Hui's purchase of the company last year followed a fierce bidding war for the listed Warrnambool Cheese & Butter, a battle eventually won by Saputo after the Canadian giant beat off local rivals Murray Goulburn and Bega Cheese.

The purchase comes as several Chinese state-owned enterprises and private companies are in negotiations to bankroll construction of new milk powder plants in NSW through a plan being brokered by Dairy Connect, a not-for-profit organisation that represents the NSW dairy industry.

Mr Hui, who was introduced to UDP in August last year by Huashan Capital co-founder David Chen, confirmed there were other investors in China willing to follow his lead to purchase or invest in Australian dairy assets.

"We know there are lots of investors in China," he said in an interview with The Australian.

"In the coming five years there will be a lot of Chinese coming to this market. In the past five years it has been in mining, but in the coming five years it will be in dairy.

"Whether it is a big company or a medium-sized company in China, they will be interested because the dairy product from Australia is very good.

"The environment here is very good for the cows and the milk. China has already been importing a lot of cows from Australia."

Mr Hui said his purchase was a private one and unrelated to Swing Media or his other business, Chinarise Capital, which trades mobile phone handsets and components in Hong Kong.

Established in 1999, UDP purchases milk from the Kirin-owned Lion-National Foods Group but also provides transport and logistics services as well as manufacturing facilities.

The company manufactures dairy products including cheddar, the Caboolture brand of mozzarella cheese, butter and whey powder.

Mr Hui's growth plan will see a major expansion of production to allow diversification into milk powder, which will be exported to China.

"We now still mainly rely on the local market," he said.

"If we get more milk supply then we will divert to the China market.

"Our factories have the potential to produce more but supply is at the maximum already.

"We need to look for the milk supply, increase our production and then we can go to China.

"Right now we have about 150 farmers, suppliers, and we are talking to them about supplying more. We are also talking to our bankers to see if they can allow us to provide finance to farmers, assistance to them, to help them grow as well," Mr Hui added.

While he said there were no plans to purchase dairy properties and emphasised that "having a processing company is very different to having a farm", he said it could be an option for the future.

"We won't buy farms now but we could in the future. But we are new to this industry," he said.

"Once we expand our facilities then we will consider buying some farms." Mr Hui's chief financial adviser and Chinarise CFO, Johnny Chan, said the company was in dialogue with Austrade about providing more support to the local farmers to help them bolster supply.

But he said the government needed to do more.

"I think the government should give more support to the farmers, to help them to grow. They shouldn't just rely on the foreign investor financing the farmers."

Mr Hui said the company remained committed to the local market. It is being run by the existing management team, led by chief executive Mark Smith.

Earlier this month it increased prices for suppliers.

"We won't cut off production or capacity for the local market because we already have good profitability here," he said.

"We don't want to cut that off and ship to a new market.

"Locally we are still growing. Locally we still have demand we can't supply to. We cannot have enough supply for our customers -- so we want to make sure our local customers are happy first." Tighter food safety rules in China have also made it more difficult for importers of dairy products, especially after a contamination scandal involving New Zealand dairy giant Fonterra last year.

"We need to be very careful because of new regulations governing the import of dairy products into China," Mr Hui said.

"Other people have been getting into big problems. We don't want to jeopardise everything we have established."

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William Hui to use United Dairy Power to break powdered milk market.

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Xi, Obama to meet at nuclear summit

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Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama will hold a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) in the Netherlands next week, China's foreign ministry says.

The NSS, first held in 2010 in Washington and again in Seoul in 2012, is to take place in The Hague next Monday and Tuesday. A theme of this year's meeting is preventing nuclear terrorism, according to the NSS website.

Chinese vice foreign minister Li Baodong told reporters that Beijing and Washington had agreed to hold the bilateral meeting, their first this year, but did not give specifics on timing or subjects.

"It is highly significant and also very important for the future development of China-US relations," he said.

The two leaders will "exchange views on bilateral relations and issues of common interest", Li added.

"China is ready to work with the United States to ensure positive outcomes of the security summit and the bilateral meeting. and inject new impetus to China-US relations."

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Chinese US Presidents to exchange views on bilateral relations in the Netherlands next week.

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The next crisis will test the lucky country

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It’s been seven years since the onset of the global financial crisis and five and a half years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers brought the world’s financial markets to the brink of ruin. How exactly did Australia avoid a collapse that captured most of the developed world? It was likely a mixture of good luck and good management.

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Malcolm Edey spoke yesterday at the CFO Summit on the Gold Coast, providing some reflections on the financial crisis. Views on the global financial crisis naturally differ -- a crisis of this magnitude will never have a singular underlying cause -- and multiple columns could (and inevitably will) be dedicated to discussing these issues.

But it is perhaps more interesting to discuss Edey’s view on why Australia avoided a recession. To his credit, he didn’t shy away from the fact that there was a lot of luck involved -- amid some good economic management.

First and foremost, we were incredibly lucky to be geographically well connected to the fastest growing region in the world economy at a time when the demand for our resources was expanding at a rapid rate. No amount of good economic management would have allowed us to avoid a recession if it wasn’t for demand from China.


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Edey says that high interest rates in the lead up to the GFC helped to “limit some of the aggressive risk-taking seen elsewhere, and it allowed plenty of room to shift to a more expansionary stance when that was needed”.

That is certainly true but in part the high interest rates  -- or at least the last few moves in 2007 and 2008 -- were evidence of the RBA failing to recognise the size and scope of the impending financial crisis prior to the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

At the time, it was too inward looking, focusing on domestic inflation and wage pressures, under the belief that our proximity to China had decoupled the Australian economy from the United States and Europe.

The RBA was certainly not alone in failing to recognise the severity of the crisis. But with so few staff remaining from Australia’s last recession, there was a clear lack of appreciation for what was happening. 

That indecision left the Australian economy susceptible to a swift collapse in domestic demand. To the RBA’s credit, it cut rates swiftly after Lehman Brothers collapsed, but by that point it was simply hoping that the Australian economy could hold on long enough for low interest rates to work their magic and provide relief for households and businesses and help free up the financial system.

Our regulatory framework, which arguably has higher expectations for our domestic banks than some foreign frameworks, certainly helped us weather the storm. Australia’s financial system didn’t suffer to the same extent as the US or Europe, though we certainly had our dicey moments particularly with the near collapse of Bankwest.

Luckily for the RBA, the federal government acted swiftly via a stimulus package that was largely unprecedented, both in Australian history and by international standards. Unlike many other countries, Australia had both the finances and political will to push through a large stimulus package and maintain it for a long period of time.


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There is naturally debate as to whether the Rudd Government got the stimulus right. Did they spend too much? Or not enough? Did they balance short-term handouts with long-term infrastructure projects? But at the time, facing considerable uncertainty, the most important characteristics of the stimulus was that it was large, decisive and it sent a clear message to financial markets.

In my view, a mixture of China, a solid regulatory framework and the federal government stimulus explains why we avoided a recession after Lehman Brothers collapsed. A mixture of China and low interest rates helped the economy maintain its momentum through difficult times.

Australia was certainly lucky when it came to the GFC. I wonder how we would have coped had it happened five years earlier, or five years later. Our resilience was perhaps a product of its time: the worst events happening at the best time for Australia.

And that luck is why Australia should heed the lessons learnt elsewhere. Australia is better than most, but our banks also need to have better risk management and stronger capital and liquidity buffers to reduce the systemic risks to the financial system and the broader economy. We might have been incredibly lucky last time but we cannot assume that we will be so lucky when the next crisis hits.

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No amount of solid economic management could have saved the economy from recession if it wasn't for demand from China. Australia may not be so fortunate when the next shock hits.

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China's Giant Interactive to go private

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New York-listed Chinese online game developer Giant Interactive says it has agreed to be taken private by its parent, backed by a consortium which will fund the $US3 billion ($A3.36 billion) purchase.

The parent would acquire the listed unit at $US12.00 per share, 2.1 per cent higher than the previous proposal of $US11.75 offered in November 2013, the Shanghai-based company said in a statement on its website on Monday.

The latest price represented a 5.3 per cent premium from Giant Interactive's closing price of $US11.40 on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday.

The consortium -- Giant Interactive chairman Shi Yuzhu, Baring Private Equity Asia and an affiliate of Hony Capital Fund -- already owns a total 49.3 per cent of the company and would purchase the rest with cash and proceeds from debt financing, the statement said.

After the deal, expected to close in the second half of 2014, the listed unit would become a privately held company and its shares would no longer be listed in New York, it said.

Giant Interactive is one of the country's leading online game developers with a focus on multi-player, role-playing games, according to the company.

Its planned privatisation followed the $US2.3 billion buyout deal of Nasdaq-listed Chinese game developer Shanda Interactive by chairman Chen Tianqiao in 2012, according to state media reports.

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Chinese online game developer Giant Interactive to delist from the Nasdaq.

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The long march to an Australia-China FTA

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Portrait of the late Communist leader Mao Zedong is reflected and distorted in a bus window as the bus drives past Tiananmen Square near the Great Hall of the People where sessions of the annual National People's Congress are held in Beijing, China, Friday, March 7, 2014.(AP Photo/Alexander F. Yuan)

Australia-China free trade agreement negotiations started when John Howard was still the prime minister. After 19 rounds, three prime ministers and nine years, we are finally close to a strike a deal.

The most positive signal came from Chinese premier Li Keqiang, who mentioned the need to accelerate the negotiation in his government work report at the recently closed annual gathering of China’s parliament.  

Li’s comment has been met with enthusiasm from both government and the business community including Prime Minister Tony Abbott, Trade Minister Andrew Robb and ANZ CEO Mike Smith. So what has been holding back progress and why are we closer now?

Two major concessions that Beijing craves are the relaxation of foreign investment rules, especially concerning state-owned enterprises, and less restriction on the movement of labour. China’s commerce minister made that clear in a recent press conference. These are two controversial areas that are bound to attract domestic political opposition.

Let’s start with Chinese foreign investment. It is one of the most divisive issues between the two countries. The relationship reached a nadir in 2009 when Chinalco’s bid for a large part of Rio Tinto failed after extensive delays in the foreign investment approval process. Stern Hu, a Rio executive, was subsequently arrested.

Fifty-seven per cent of Australians think the country is allowing too much investment from China, according to the Lowy Institute Poll 2013. Prime Minister Abbott also made a similar point about the undesirability of state-owned investors when he was the opposition leader during a visit to Beijing.   

The government is reportedly prepared to make major concessions in this area, according to The Saturday Paper. So what has changed?

Canberra offered the $1 billion investment threshold to South Korea in the recently concluded free trade agreement. This privilege had previously only been extended to the US and New Zealand, two of Australia’s closest diplomatic allies.

Now the government has offered it to South Korea, it is next to impossible to withhold it from the Chinese -- otherwise it will look utterly discriminatory. It is likely that the government will offer the same deal to Chinese private investors.

However, it is not clear what kind of concessions Canberra is prepared to give up on when scrutinising state-owned investors. It is worthwhile pointing out that the existing policy that requires all state-owned investors and sovereign wealth funds to submit themselves to the Foreign Investment Review Board for examination regardless of the value of their investments has no legal standing.

In other words, it is not enforceable and foreign investors only obey it because they want to maintain the goodwill of the FIRB.

If Canberra were to make a concession on state-owned investors -- whatever form that may take -- the outcome may not be that significant in practice. The Chinese have been their losing their appetite for Australian resources over the last year or two. And Australia has lost its top billing as the most favourite destination for Chinese investment to the US, according to a KPMG report.

Gilbert & Tobin M&A partner Craig Semple said deals from large Chinese state-owned enterprises have dried up. Law firm Corrs Chambers Westgarth finds Chinese bidders from the private sector are getting active in cross-border M&A deals.

It appears that the great rush into the Australian resources sector during the mining boom is more or less over. Chinese state-owned investors also bought a lot of dud assets at the top of the market. They probably wish now that the FIRB rejected their deals at the time. If there is ever a good time to make some concessions, it’s right now.

Meanwhile, Beijing has long sought for the right to bring in its own skilled workers and engineers to complete major Chinese mining projects in Australia, such as CITIC Pacific’s $8 billion iron ore project in Western Australia.

The Saturday Paper reports that the government is considering visa options for skilled workers to come to the country to work on major Chinese projects. If Canberra were to make this concession, CITIC Pacific, which operates the biggest Chinese project in Australia, is unlikely to benefit much from it. The construction phase of the project is nearly complete.

However, it is not clear whether the government is prepared to give ground on the requirement that foreign and Australian workers need to be paid and treated the same way. Otherwise it makes no sense for China to bring in its own workforce. Beijing's goal is to minimise wage bills. 

It is not clear that the Abbott government is prepared to go this far to clinch a trade deal with China. Canberra can afford to make concessions on foreign investment due to rapidly changing circumstances on the ground such as the $1 billion threshold for South Korea as well as declining investment from state actors.

But there is a common misconception that the FIRB is the last line of defence. In fact, Australian regulatory agencies like ASIC, APRA and the ATO can still exercise oversight over Chinese companies once they are in Australia. In fact, it is arguable that an agency like the ATO has far greater power, resources and enforcement experience to discipline foreign investors.

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As Beijing makes no secret of its yen for relaxed foreign investment rules, how far will the Abbott government go to clinch an FTA?

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