BEIJING—China’s leadership is preparing to radically consolidate the country’s bloated state-owned sector, telling thousands of enterprises they need to rely less on state life support and get ready to list on public markets.
The economic slowdown has heightened the imperative to eke better returns out of the state firms that tower over China’s economy, from the giants that dominate oil, banking and other strategic sectors, to smaller ones that run hotels and make toothpaste.
On Wednesday, China showed fresh signs of weakness, reporting that industrial production for the year’s first two months grew at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis, weighed down by overcapacity, while housing prices continued their swoon.
But instead of scaling back state firms’ role, as economists urge, the consolidation plan could tighten the state’s grip over economic activity and make already inflated behemoths even bigger.
Communist Party leaders plan to release broad guidelines in the next months for restructuring the country’s more than 100,000 state-owned enterprises, according to government officials and advisers with knowledge of the deliberations.
The leadership is determined to “crack a hard nut,” said Li Jin, deputy head of the China Enterprise Reform and Development Society, a trade group under the top state-firm regulator.
Strategically important industries such as energy, resources and telecommunications are marked for consolidation, the officials and advisers say. The merged entities would then be reorganized as asset-investment firms, with a mandate to make sure they run more like commercial operations than arms of the government.
Upper management will be under orders to maximize returns and prepare many of the companies for eventual listing on stock markets, these people say.
State companies are already under pressure to hand the government 30 per cent of their profits by 2020—from 15 per cent or less now. Some of this is to be earmarked for costs related to a rapidly aging population. The new plan adds a goal of making the biggest state companies profitable enough to go public by 2025, according to the officials.
By many measures, the state sector has grown more dominant in China’s economic life, despite Beijing’s recurring calls for a more vibrant private sector.
The plan could be controversial as it falls short of the steps advocated by some market-reform advocates: For one thing it takes large-scale privatization off the table.
“The idea of having asset managers oversee state assets is a good one, but it shouldn’t be done through combining existing state-owned enterprises that are already so big,” says Zhang Wenkui, a deputy director at the Development Research Center of the State Council, China’s cabinet. “That would only lead to less competition.”
Beijing has sought to improve state companies’ efficiency through consolidation in years past, with little success. For example, the government of Hebei province, which rings Beijing, merged two major steel makers to create Hebei Iron and Steel Group, which went on to scoop up more companies but which is now mired in losses and debt.
The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, or Sasac, which oversees the largest state enterprises, declined requests for comment on the reform plan. In a speech to the legislature last week, Premier Li Keqiang vowed to “deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises” and to “speed up efforts” to set up state-asset investment companies. He didn’t elaborate.
The Wall Street Journal reported last month on a facet of the restructuring: plans to merge state oil companies to make them more viable globally by reducing competition at home.
Over the years, China has moved in fits and starts to restructure its vast state-owned sector. In the 1990s, then-Premier Zhu Rongji closed thousands of factories and managed to make some state firms profitable by setting up asset-management companies that took over their debts. But little has been done to improve the way state companies are run.
Once released, the new plan is expected to be implemented by various level of government, though resistance by local officials is expected.
“Making state enterprises more commercial would mean an end to a lot of government subsidies to their employees, like housing and electricity bills,” said an official in eastern China’s Jiangxi province. “That would make a lot of people upset and angry.”
The prospect of a shake-up has prompted market bets on consolidation. Shares in the two state-controlled train makers, China CNR Corp. and China CSR Corp., have doubled in price since December when they announced a merger plan. The tie-up was approved by regulators this month. Meanwhile, shares in the listed arms of two of China’s oil giants—China National Petroleum Corp., or CNPC, and China Petrochemical Corp., or Sinopec—have also risen on speculation they would be combined.
Asked about the chances of such a tie-up, Sinopec Chairman Fu Chengyu told China’s official Xinhua News Agency on March 3, “I don’t know.”
Beijing still sees a bigger role for the private sector: The plan supports efforts to invite private investment into state firms, though the officials and advisers say that private investors wouldn’t be permitted to hold controlling stakes in most state firms.
Beijing sees a combination of mergers, better supervision and the discipline of public listing as crucial to reducing waste and corruption and holding management accountable, Chinese officials say.
“State-owned enterprises should have the kind of governance and financial accountability that meets the criteria for publicly traded companies,” Guo Shuqing, governor of Shandong province and a former financial regulator, told reporters this weekend.
State firms have thrived on access to loans from state banks and government-set rules that limit competition from private businesses, which complain of being muscled out of the market unfairly. Economists have said the special status has come at a cost to Chinese taxpayers and consumers.
In an analysis for The Wall Street Journal, economist Zhu Chaoping at UOB Kay Hian Holdings Ltd., a Singapore-based brokerage, found that assets at state-owned enterprises, defined as those majority-controlled by the government, jumped 90 per cent to 25.1 trillion yuan ($4 trillion) in 2012 from 2008. Return on equity among state-controlled manufacturers, however, averaged 11.6 per cent in 2013, compared with nearly 25.7 per cent for their private brethren, according to Mr. Zhu’s analysis.
When drawing up the plan, senior officials looked at Singapore’s holding company for state firms, Temasek Holdings, according to officials and advisers. Under the Temasek model, the government would confine itself to the role of a stakeholder, receiving dividends but leaving day-to-day running of the companies to professional managers at the asset-investment firms hired at market rates.
In the end, Beijing’s plan stops short of that. The government will retain its current practice of naming senior management teams for the newly formed companies, the officials and advisers say.
Beijing has quietly started experimenting with forming state investment companies through merging state firms. Last year, at Sasac’s direction, State Development & Investment Corp., a financial and industrial conglomerate, scooped up a securities firm, while Cofco Corp.—one of China’s largest food-processing firms—swallowed another state-owned food company. Cofco absorbed the assets of China Huafu Trade & Development Group “for free,” according to Huafu, which became a subsidiary.
Officials at the regulator, State Development and Cofco declined to comment.
Meanwhile, in the nuclear power sector, China Power Investment Corp. is merging with the State Nuclear Power Technology Corp., according to the securities filings made by China Power’s listed arms last month.
Making big state companies bigger is likely to draw renewed wrath from private Chinese companies and from Western businesses and their governments, which have criticized Beijing for years for essentially subsidizing state firms by giving them preferential access to credit, land and other resources.
Combining state firms would “run counter to” Beijing’s promise to broaden private participation in the economy, said Zhang Ming, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank.